Retrospective evaluation of school-related measures on pre-vaccination transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.
Published in BioRxiv, 2025
Using an age-structured ODE model trained on hospitalization and seroprevalence data from Portugal during the first two waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we evaluate the effect of school closures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalizations. We focused on two counterfactual scenarios: one in which schools remained open during the first lockdown and another in which schools closed following the summer holidays. We find that the impact of school closures on transmission is highly context-dependent, influenced by measures to reduce transmission within schools, and the intensity of transmission outside them.
Recommended citation: Canfora B. et al. (2025). "Retrospective evaluation of school-related measures on pre-vaccination transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2." BioRxiv.
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