Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Using the renewal equation with a time-varying, variant-specific reproduction number, we estimated the selective advantage of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in different geographical regions. The renewal equation method allows for realistic modeling of the generation interval distribution, and in our case we could incorporate differences in “wild type” and “mutant” strains. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model, and tested the effect of a number of covariates on the selective advantage. These covariates included the number of cases and deaths prior to the emergence of Omicron, and the vaccination coverage. We also compared the selective advantage of Delta with that of Omicron in the same region, and found a moderately significant correlation. This could point to systematic differences between countries that influence the observed selective advantage.

Recommended citation: van Dorp CH. et al (2022). "Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron." Virus Evolution. 8(2): veac089.
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